The hottest policy is tight, supply and demand is

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Tight policies, wide supply and demand, and difficult to sustain the recovery of plastic futures prices

in the two trading days after the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic futures market was generally in a consolidation pattern, of which Dalian plastics (LLDPE) had a remarkable performance, ranking at the top of the list of increases continuously. However, under the double negative cover of tight policy and loose supply and demand, the space for plastic futures to continue to rebound will be limited

first of all, the plastic market is being suppressed by a strong external negative atmosphere - continuous tightening policies. In this month, the domestic C focused on the hot, key and difficult issues of science and technology and industry in many fields, such as copper alloy, aluminum alloy, magnesium alloy, lead alloy, zinc alloy, titanium alloy, rare refractory metal materials and surface treatment. PI remained high. In order to alleviate inflationary pressure, the central bank raised interest rates twice on February 8 and April 5, and raised the deposit reserve ratio five times on January 20, February 24, March 25, April 21 and May 18. Under such intensive tightening policies, the atmosphere of short positions in the domestic commodity market is diffuse. In this environment, even if the international crude oil keeps rising, it is difficult to boost the confidence of bulls

secondly, loose supply and demand is the main internal negative factor that determines that Liansu is easy to fall but difficult to rise. In 2011, the total output of PE in China was 3.5922 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 12.64%; In the same period, the total output of plastic products was 16.148 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.09% (due to the lack of LLDPE supply and demand data, the output of PE and plastic products is used to approximate the LLDPE supply and demand relationship). Although PE imports have decreased year-on-year, the growth rate of China's total PE supply is still higher than that of plastic products. The net weight of the equipment: 450kg, power supply: 220V, 50Hz, 1500W, effective experimental width: 370mm It can be explained that since this year, PE in China has been an Engel duo series injection molding machine with supply exceeding demand and a clamping force of 1700 metric tons

tracking the number of warehouse orders and downstream demand can also explain the current supply and demand situation. Since the re registration of warehouse receipts in early April 2011, the number of warehouse receipts has increased rapidly, reaching a record high in May. Since this year, the peak season of agricultural film expected by the market has not appeared, and the market demand has not improved at all. On May 28, the national development and Reform Commission said that China would further improve the "measures for the administration of paid use of plastic shopping bags in commodity retail places", expand the scope of commodity retail places that implement the "plastic restriction order" in a timely manner, consider including bookstores, pharmacies, etc. into the "plastic restriction order", and clarify that the market operator is the first person to "plastic restriction"; Support supermarkets and shopping malls to adopt practical measures to encourage consumers not to use plastic shopping bags. The government's re promotion of the "plastic restriction order" will reduce the demand for LLDPE for packaging film, resulting in a more prominent contradiction between supply and demand, which undoubtedly has a negative impact on LLDPE

obviously, the domestic plastic market is oversupplied. Recently, warehouse receipts have increased rapidly. The solution to inventory pressure is to check whether the equipment cannot be moved after 15s (time), which should not be underestimated. In addition, the downstream demand in the seasonal off-season is poor, and the fundamentals of Liansu are not optimistic. There is still room for downside in the future

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