The hottest policy issues may fail

Photovoltaic policy issues abound, and the "eight national regulations" may fail

benefiting from the continuous introduction of good policy news, the concept of photovoltaic solar energy in the mainland A-share market, Hong Kong stock market, and the U.S. stock market, as well as related stocks, have soared. And the super large installed capacity of more than 35 gigawatts proposed in the "national eight articles" has made domestic photovoltaic enterprises eager to see through, and they are fully prepared to fight and seize this big fat meat

in just three years, whether the target of 35 GW can be achieved, how to complete it, where the funds of state subsidies come from, and how to realize them in time have become difficult problems for the government. Otherwise, the "eight national regulations" that have been praised to heaven will only be an empty shell

35 GW great leap forward

"national eight articles" put forward that by 2015, the total installed capacity will reach more than 35 GW, which means that the average annual new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the next three years will be about 10 GW, and the demand will increase more than three times in three years. However, in 2011 and 2012, China's installed capacity was only 2.5 GW and 4.5 GW respectively

the expansion of new installed capacity is mainly achieved through the development of domestic distributed photovoltaic power generation and ground power stations. In terms of distributed photovoltaic power generation business, China will 1 accelerate the emergence of "Reindustrialization" and new economies in developed countries, and build 100 application demonstration areas and 1000 application demonstration towns and villages. At the same time, the state will continue to support photovoltaic power generation projects in remote areas and islands

before the "national eight articles" came out, the national energy administration has issued the "work plan for distributed photovoltaic power generation demonstration zone" to all provinces and cities. All regions will quickly report one or two demonstration zone projects in the near future, and it is expected to start as soon as August

in this regard, Ren Haoning, an energy industry analyst at CIC consulting, said bluntly: "the country's formulation of this goal itself is very aggressive, which is no different from the great leap forward of the people's commune at that time, and the formulation of many policies of the" eight national policies "is also very unprofessional."

"Article 8 of the State Council" stipulates that "power enterprises should ensure that supporting electricity and photovoltaic power generation projects are constructed and put into operation simultaneously, give priority to photovoltaic power generation plans, and purchase the total amount of power generated". Among them, how to realize the full acquisition of power generation has become a major criticism. In recent years, although the state has been promoting this policy, the implementation is not ideal

compared with the installed capacity, the amount of consolidation is more, and the inspection of photovoltaic equipment is less. As of last year, only 3.27 GW has been merged, and the merging rate is only 40%. "The reason is that in the peak period of power consumption, there is often an artificial phenomenon of power abandonment, which is even more unimaginable in the winter half year when the demand for power is relatively small." Ren Haoning said

another person in the industry who did not want to be named also said to me, "the power generated by the power station should have been purchased in full by the state power company. But in reality, the power company often fabricates some reasons to prevaricate, and in some places there is no system at all."

the above industry insiders stressed that the main reason for the abandonment of electricity is that the state does not require power companies to purchase power generation, but the policy has been promoted

mixed

in order to eliminate backward production capacity and comprehensively promote the merger and reorganization of the photovoltaic industry, the "eight national regulations" also put forward stricter technical requirements for new projects in the photovoltaic industry in the future

in the future, new photovoltaic manufacturing projects should meet the requirements that the conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic cells should not be less than 20%, polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic cells should not be less than 18%, thin-film photovoltaic cells should not be less than 12%, and the comprehensive power consumption of polycrystalline silicon production should not be higher than 100. The main power drive of electronic universal material testing machine is kW/kg brought by servo Electromechanical

Wang Junchao, general manager of Shenzhen Han's photovoltaic company, revealed to the public that the state has put forward new requirements in terms of technology, which is actually forced by the situation of the industry. He said that at present, there is a polarization in China's monocrystalline silicon and polycrystalline silicon industries, with low-end products flooding and high-end products relying on imports. "Only through technological innovation can we fundamentally improve the competitiveness of the photovoltaic industry, and now the 'eight national regulations' are also making up for the shortcomings."

Wang Junchao pointed out that at present, the conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic cells in the market is mostly between 16% and 18%, and the conversion rate of 20% has been very strict

the requirements of the "national eight articles" on technology are equivalent to raising the entry threshold, with great restrictions and high standard setting. "It is estimated that a large number of enterprises will close down in the second half of the year and next year."

it is known from many enterprises that this technical goal is very stressful for current photovoltaic enterprises, and even some operators exclaim that it is an impossible goal

Suzhou Shengkang photovoltaic technology company is a photovoltaic enterprise engaged in the whole industry chain of battery modules and power stations. Liu Qian, general manager of the company, is also mixed about the new deal issued by the state. Happily, the total installed capacity of 35 gigawatts is really a great temptation, which can absorb most of China's existing production capacity

however, "we also hope that the government will not 'cut across the board'. Although strict technical indicators are beneficial to production capacity, technological upgrading and equipment transformation, and the direction is not wrong, we are worried that we will be questioned and hindered at the operational level. After all, equipment upgrading will take some time." Liu Qian's concern also comes from when the subsidy policy for electricity price will be refined and whether the relevant supporting policies can be implemented and followed up

where does the money come from

Article 7 of the "eight national articles" clearly states that: according to the development needs of photovoltaic power generation, adjust the additional collection standard of renewable energy electricity price, expand the scale of renewable energy development fund, and coordinate with the scale of photovoltaic power generation

the problem is that at present, the "blood bag" of "blood transfusion" in the photovoltaic industry comes from the national renewable energy development fund, which should cover and support many renewable energy industries × However, there are many monks but few

according to the Interim Measures for the administration of the collection and use of renewable energy development funds, the development funds are used to support renewable energy industries such as wind power, solar energy and biomass energy. The sources of funds include special funds arranged by the national financial public budget and the renewable energy electricity price additional income collected from ordinary power enterprises and household electricity, of which the electricity price additional income is the main one

this is also the only source of funds to subsidize power generation on renewable energy at present

although the collection standard of the additional electricity price has been increased year by year, from 2% per kwh in 2006 to 4% per kwh in 2009, until 8% per kWh since December 2011. However, there is still a big gap between the actual additional income of electricity price and the actual subsidy demand

Meng Xiangan, vice president of the China Renewable Energy Association, revealed that the additional annual income of electricity price should have been 40billion yuan, but it was discounted in the implementation process. At present, the scale of the fund is about 20billion yuan, of which 18billion yuan is used for wind power subsidies, and then excluding biomass energy, few are left for solar subsidies

according to the current annual power generation level of domestic photovoltaic solar energy, the average annual power generation is 40-50 billion kwh, and the corresponding subsidy of more than 20 billion yuan is required. In other words, there is a difference of at least ten times between the capital demand of the average annual electricity price subsidy and the additional income of electricity price, and the gap is about 20billion yuan. According to the national expectation, the implementation period of electricity price and subsidy is 20 years in principle

according to the Research Report on China's photovoltaic classification and electricity price policy in 2013, the cumulative installed capacity of the country will be 100 GW by 2020, and 46 GW of large-scale photovoltaic power stations and 46 GW of distributed photovoltaic power stations will be added after 2013. The total demand for subsidy funds in 20 years is more than 450 billion yuan, the total subsidy funds for large-scale photovoltaic power stations are more than 290 billion yuan, and the total subsidy funds for distributed photovoltaic power stations are more than 159 billion yuan

there is still too much uncertainty about whether China's renewable energy fund can meet such a huge demand for photovoltaic subsidies. As Meng Xiangan said, "where does money come from is a big problem. If this problem is not solved and meets the national experimental electric gas standard, all policies of the photovoltaic industry will be empty." Zhonghua glass () Department