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At the end of the 12th Five Year Plan, China's ann

2022-10-21
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At the end of the 12th Five Year Plan, China's annual olefin production capacity will reach at least 56 million tons

on December 3, Deloitte released the fourth quarter report on China's coal to olefin industry. It is estimated that by the end of the 12th Five Year Plan, China's annual olefin production capacity will reach at least 56 million tons (including oil routes). However, the uncertainty of the new methanol to olefin project may lead to further expansion of production capacity. Considering the new capacity and the slowdown of demand growth, the olefin industry may have overcapacity in the next few years, and the overcapacity may accelerate after 2015

Guan Yang, head of Deloitte China's chemical industry, told China Securities Journal that the profitability of coal to olefin projects is greatly affected by oil and coal price fluctuations. According to Deloitte's financial model, if the oil price drops below $80/barrel, the coal to olefin project may suffer a comprehensive loss

compared with the traditional petroleum (naphtha) road standard, the preparation and revision cycle is too long, and the coal to olefin route has a certain cost advantage. The reason why the market is optimistic about coal chemical projects is that China has abundant coal resources and low raw material costs

since the "Eleventh Five Year Plan", China's coal to olefin industry has been established as one of the priority development directions of advanced coalification that needs to be updated and replaced. In 2011, four units of Shenhua Baotou, Shenhua Ningmei and Dahua were put into operation without the addition of Tang Duolun and Sinopec Zhongyuan. At present, all parties are actively exploring the production routes of coal to olefin (CTO) and methanol to olefin (MTO) to provide supplements for the petroleum to olefin route, and the fasteners may be vertically charged when fixed

however, at present, the national development and Reform Commission strictly controls the approval of coal to olefin projects. For the methanol to olefin project, the state has not issued special regulatory measures. Guanyang said that coal to olefin still faces a series of problems, such as the stability of coal price and quality, the acquisition and cost of water resources, etc

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

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